Three indexed growth rates over a twelve-year window. Source: Marblehead ACFRs, MA DOR DLS, US BLS.
Over FY2012 through FY2024, Marblehead's total collected property tax levy grew 53.2%, the median Marblehead single-family tax bill grew 54.9%, and headline inflation (CPI-U) grew 36.6%. The levy and the median bill tracked each other closely, and both grew meaningfully above inflation. Individual tax bills vary based on each property's specific assessment history, and a home whose value rose faster than the town median saw a larger-than-median increase.
The town's collected levy and the median single-family bill grew at nearly identical rates over this twelve-year window, a reminder that Proposition 2½ caps the total levy (what the town raises) and individual bills move with a property's share of that capped total. CPI-U, by contrast, grew about 17 percentage points less. Marblehead residents did see property tax bills grow faster than inflation; this chart shows what that looks like in aggregate.
Individual tax bills vary based on each property's assessment history. A home whose value rose faster than the town median over this window saw a bill increase larger than the 55 percent median figure. A home whose value rose slower saw a smaller increase. The chart's median line is a summary statistic, not a prediction of any individual homeowner's experience.
A related question came up at the April 8, 2026 Select Board meeting: have home values and tax bills diverged? They have. From FY2016 to FY2020 (pre-COVID), total assessed value rose roughly 21% while the levy rose 14%, a modest gap. From FY2020 to FY2026, total assessed value rose roughly 48% while the levy rose only 22%. The average single-family assessed value is up about 80% over the full FY2016–FY2026 window; the average single-family tax bill is up about 39%.
The mechanism is Proposition 2½. The levy can grow at most 2.5% per year (plus new growth and debt exclusions). When COVID-era demand pushed assessed values up sharply, the tax rate dropped from $10.39 (FY2020) to $8.59 (FY2026) to keep total collections within the cap. Individual bills still rose, but at the levy's pace, not the valuation pace. A homeowner whose property doubled in value did not see their tax bill double.
Marblehead's levy has grown faster than headline inflation over the past decade, but the FY27 budget gap is a specific acute cliff rather than a long-run drift. Health insurance rates jumped 11 percent for FY27, pension obligations rose 9 percent, a new curbside trash contract added costs, and the Free Cash reserves that balanced the FY26 budget are not available again at the same level. For the full reconciliation of where the $8.47M FY27 gap comes from, see how the $8.47M FY27 gap is calculated.
Sources. Marblehead collected tax levy from ACFR "Property Tax Levies and Collections" tables (FY01–FY10 from FY10 ACFR, FY05–FY14 from FY14 ACFR, FY15–FY24 from FY24 ACFR), compiled in data/tax_levy_FY01-24.csv. Median single-family tax bill from MA DOR DLS "Average Single Family Tax Bill" report, Marblehead FY2012–FY2024 rows. CPI-U calendar-year annual averages from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, compiled in data/cpi_us.csv.
Year alignment. Marblehead fiscal year runs July through June (FY2024 covers July 2023 through June 2024), while CPI-U is calendar-year. This chart aligns them by matching fiscal year N to calendar year N. The six-month offset introduces a small alignment error that does not affect the qualitative relationships shown.
Why "collected" and not "levy limit." The chart's levy line is the collected property tax levy, which is the Proposition 2½ base levy plus any voter-approved debt exclusions for bonded projects. This is the figure most directly comparable to the median single-family bill, because homeowners pay both the base levy and the debt exclusion portion. The base levy limit alone is tracked in data/marblehead_levy.csv.
Individual variation. The median single-family tax bill reflects the bill paid on a median-valued single-family home each year. Individual bills depend on each property's assessed value, which is reassessed annually. A home that appreciated faster than the town median will have seen bill growth above the median line; a home that appreciated slower will have seen bill growth below it.