Total projected revenue (4 scenarios) vs total projected expenses, FY2026–FY2030. FY26–FY27 from State of the Town presentation. FY28–FY30 projected using Finance Committee growth rates.
All four revenue scenarios start at the same point (FY26 balanced budget, $103.3M). Expenses grow at ~5.4%/yr (blended Finance Committee rate). Revenue differs by override tier. Tier 3 roughly matches expenses through FY29, then a gap reopens by FY30 (~$4M). No tier permanently closes the gap at these growth rates. FY26–FY27 figures are from the State of the Town presentation. FY28–FY30 are projections.
FY26–FY27 revenue and expenses from Town Administrator's State of the Town presentation (January 2026). FY27 revenue declines because free cash usage drops from $9M to $5M.
FY28–FY30 expenses projected at 5.4%/yr (blended: HC 9%, pensions 8.5%, salaries 5%, other 3%, weighted by FY26 budget share). Revenue: levy at 3%/yr, other sources declining through FY29 then flat. Override amounts phased in per Kezer presentation.
These projections become less reliable further out. Actual results will depend on GIC rate decisions, collective bargaining outcomes, state aid, property value changes, and other factors not modeled here.